提供者:Resilliance联盟内容:文本/平原;charset = " utf - 8 " TY -的A1 -巴赫,阿德里安A1 - Minderman珀斯A1 - Bunnefeld, Nils A1 -轧机,艾琳c . A1 - Duthie a·布拉德利TI -干预还是等待?模型评估干预的时机下保护冲突适应性管理不确定性N2 -生物多样性经理人的时机干预措施可以保护的成功的关键,尤其是在保护目标之间的冲突和人类生活的情况下,即,保护冲突。考虑到不确定性与复杂的生态系统和生物多样性推迟行动的潜在的不可逆转的后果和生计,管理者倾向于简单地尽快干预预防措施。然而,情况允许时避免干预可以是有益的,特别是通过保存关键的管理资源。我们引入一个策略经理来决定,基于监控,是否需要干预或者等待是可能的。本研究评估这种等待策略的性能相比,无条件的干预的策略在每一个机会。我们建立了一个基于单独的模型的保护之间的冲突管理旨在保护动物人口和农民收益最大化目标保护作物免受野生动物的破坏。然后我们模拟一个budget-constrained适应性管理随着时间的推移,每个策略应用,而占人口动态和不确定性决策的管理人员和农民。我们的研究结果表明,当经理的决定进行干预是基于人口的预测轨迹,等待策略至少执行以及无条件的干预,同时也允许管理者节省资源,避免不必要的干预。 Under difficult budgetary constraints on managers, this waiting strategy ensured as high yields as unconditional intervention while significantly improving conservation outcomes by compensating managers’ lack of resources with the benefits accrued over waiting periods. This suggests that waiting strategies are worth considering in conservation conflicts because they can facilitate equitable management with a more efficient use of management resources, which are often limiting in biodiversity conservation. JO - Ecology and Society PB - The Resilience Alliance Y1 - 2022 P1 - 2022 VL - 27 IS - 3 C7 - 3 UR - //www.dpl-cld.com/vol27/iss3/art3/ DO - 10.5751/ES-13341-270303 KW - adaptive management KW - conservation conflicts KW - decision-making modeling KW - individual-based modeling KW - management strategy evaluation KW - timing of intervention KW - uncertainty ER -